Oct and Dec. 2009

• Sales of pre-owned homes have increased significantly from year-ago numbers
• Price declines have slowed
• The number of homes for sale in North Texas have fallen to the lowest level in more than two years

However, is this enough to cause the DFW market to rebound in 2010?

National analysts agree that Texas—which for the most part didn’t experience the last housing bubble—is poised to see home sector gains in the year ahead.

“Any sustained turn-around in sales and construction activity will definitely depend on the economy and job growth. We do see increasing signs that the local economy has bottomed out, and business contacts say they are through cutting staff.”
D’Ann Peterson, a business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

New Homes

“There now is currently less than a six-month supply of homes priced under $250,000 and just over a six-month supply of homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000. If homebuilders are not able to start as many homes as they are closing because of lending constraints, then some of those buyers may be forced into the resale market and could cause new home closings to fall further next year.”
David Brown of Metrostudy, Inc.

2009
Builders starts about 13,000 homes in North Texas (the smallest production volume in amost two decades)

Ted Wilson of housing research firm, Residential Strategies, Inc., says this figure should prove to be pretty close to the bottom and is projecting 15,000 home starts in DFW for 2010.

“If job growth picks up sooner rather than later, starts could push as high as 17,000, but we are still feeling conservative about the market”.

Pre-Owned Homes

The number of properties listed for sale fell below the six-month supply point in November. This is considered a balanced sales market.

Analyst Stephan Bedikian of housing consultant, Real IQ, is expecting an uptick in the market next spring.

“By March, we’re likely to see volume increase and prices firming. That trend will continue throughout the summer, and then we will return to a market that treads water for the balance of the year. I would expect people to be surprised by the strength of housing prices between the March and August period.”

Foreclosures

Jan 2010
Almost 5,900 homes are scheduled for foreclosure next month in the DFW four-county area. This is a 45% jump in foreclosure filings from January 2009. However, it is below the record of 6,072 posting in July of 2009.

But, a big part of the filings, probably more than 40%, are not new postings, but houses that have previously been scheduled for forced sale. Lenders typically delay home foreclosures while negotiating with borrowers. That can result in the same property being scheduled for auction over and over for months.

Foreclosure Listing Service of Addison, TX, recorded a record of 61,676 DFW foreclosures. This number was up 23% from 2008. NOT counting the repeat filings, foreclosure notices fell 12% in DFW.

January 2010 Foreclosure Postings Compared to January 2009
Dallas County up 39%
Tarrant County up 38%
Collin County up 77%
Denton County up 51%